Due to shifts in the makeup of the market as well as in the country’s economic and geopolitical environment, the Maldives tourism forecasts fall, with the Ministry of Finance lowering its growth projections for tourism. The Macroeconomic Update, released at the end of June 2024, states that 1.88 million tourists arrived in 2023, a 12.1% rise from 2022, beyond pre-pandemic levels. There were 604,004 tourists in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, a 15.3% increase. A notable increase in arrivals from China, which made up 11.2% of all visitors in early 2024 compared to 3.4% in 2023, was the primary driver of this expansion. The timing of the Chinese New Year and the addition of direct flights are thought to be responsible for the spike.
There has been a noticeable decrease in the number of arrivals from South Asia, especially India. Reduced flight connectivity, opening up of other tourist sites, lifting of travel restrictions, and geopolitical instability in the region are all contributing factors to this reduction. 12.9 million bed nights were reported at the end of 2023, up 5.2% from 2022. The actual number of bed nights was 3.5% fewer than anticipated notwithstanding this gain. This variation is attributed to differences in data between the Maldives Inland Revenue Authority (MIRA) and the Ministry of Tourism. Reconciling these numbers is being worked on to increase accuracy.
It is anticipated that 2 million tourists will arrive in 2024, up 8.1% from 2023. In spite of this, predicted bed nights have been lowered to 13.8 million due to shifts in important source markets and a decreased trend in average stay duration. Due to the shorter stays of Chinese tourists, the average stay is now predicted to be 6.8 days, down from the earlier projection of 7.1 days.
Over a medium period, it is anticipated that bed nights and tourist arrivals will increase at average rates of 7.4 and 8.4%, respectively. However, in light of current market developments and geopolitical considerations, Maldives tourism forecasts have been revised downward. These projections are also anticipated to be impacted by the opening of the passenger terminal at Velana International Airport in late 2024. If you’re looking to book your vacation to Maldives, head over to Splendid Asia or our booking assistant MadlyMaldives and get started on your journey!
